Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amazinga okuthutha impahla esitsheni samazwe ngamazweimaketheziye zaqhubeka nokukhula, okube nomthelela omkhulu ekuthuthweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, ezokuthutha kanyeukuhweba.

Kusukela ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, inkomba yokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla kwamanye amazwe eChina isifinyelele amaphuzu angu-3,079, okuwukwenyuka okungu-240.1% esikhathini esifanayo ngo-2020, futhi okuphindwe kabili kunokwenyuka kwamaphuzu angu-1,336 ngaphambi komjikelezo wamanje wokwenyuka.

Lokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo kuhilela ububanzi obubanzi. Ngaphambi kuka-2020, ukwanda kwezinga lokuthutha emakethe yezitsha kwakugxile kakhulu kwezinye izindlela kanye nezikhathi ezithile, kodwa lo mjikelezo ngokuvamile ukhuphukile. Izinga lokuthutha lemizila emikhulu efana nomzila waseYurophu, umzila waseMelika, umzila waseJapan-South Korea, umzila waseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, kanye nomzila waseMedithera kukhuphuke ngo-410.5 ngokulandelana uma kuqhathaniswa nokuphela kuka-2019. %, 198.2%, 39.1%, 89.7% kanye no-396.7%.

Izinga lokuthutha "elingabonakali ngaphambili" liyakhuphuka

Ngokuphathelene nokukhula kwemakethe yezokuthutha yamakhonteyina emhlabeni jikelele, uJia Dashan, iphini likamongameli we-Water Transport Research Institute yoMnyango Wezokuthutha, obelokhu ecwaninga ngemboni iminyaka eminingi, naye wakhala “ngokungakaze kubonwe ngaphambili”.

UJia Dashan uthe ngokombono wesidingo, umnotho womhlaba wonke uqhubeke nokusimama kusukela ekuqaleni kwalonyaka, futhi ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe kuqale kabusha ukukhula ngokushesha. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2019, isidingo sokuthuthwa kwamakhonteyina sikhuphuke cishe ngo-6%. Isimo eShayina singcono. Kusukela ngoJuni 2020, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemikhiqizo yokukhiqiza kanye nokuhweba kwamanye amazwe kufinyelele ukukhula okuqhubekayo.

Ngokombono wokunikezwa kwempahla, ukusebenza kahle kwemikhumbi ethintekile yilolu bhubhane kwehle kakhulu. Amazwe andise ukuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane olungenisiwe emachwebeni, andise isikhathi sokufika kwemikhumbi emachwebeni, futhi anciphise ukusebenza kahle kokushintshana kwemikhumbi echwebeni. Isikhathi esimaphakathi semikhumbi esima echwebeni sanda cishe ngezinsuku ezi-2, kanti imikhumbi emachwebeni aseNyakatho Melika yahlala echwebeni izinsuku ezingaphezu kweziyi-8. Ukwehla kokushintshana kwempahla kuphule ibhalansi yokuqala. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo lapho ibhalansi eyisisekelo yokunikezwa kwempahla nesidingo ngo-2019 yayingaphezu kancane, kukhona ukushoda kwe-ukunikezwacishe u-10%.

Ukuntuleka okuqhubekayo kwabasebenzi nakho kwandisa ukushoda. Isimo esiyinkimbinkimbi sobhubhane emazweni amakhulu olwandle njengePhilippines neNdiya, kanye nokushintshana kwabasebenzi kanye nokuhlukaniswa, kuholele ekukhuleni okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zabasebenzi emakethe yasolwandle.

Bephazanyiswa yizici ezishiwo ngenhla, ubudlelwano obujwayelekile phakathi kokunikezwa kwemakethe nesidingo bushintshe ngokushesha, futhi amazinga okuthutha impahla ethwala izitsha aqhubekile nokwenyuka kakhulu.

Izibalo ezivela kuMkhandlu Wezohwebo Nentuthuko Yezizwe Ezihlangene, i-China Customs kanye namachweba zibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngaphambi kokugqashuka kwalesi sifo kuya kuJulayi kulo nyaka, ngaphezu kwama-80% omthamo wokuhweba womhlaba wonke waqedwa ngolwandle, kanti ingxenye yokungeniswa nokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla kwamanye amazwe eShayina ngolwandle yayivela kulesi sifo. Ama-94.3% angaphambilini akhuphuke afinyelela kuma-94.8% amanje.

“Ngokocwaningo olufanele, ekuhwebeni kwezimpahla zokungenisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe eShayina, ingxenye yezimpahla amalungelo azo okuthumela alawulwa amabhizinisi asekhaya ingaphansi kuka-30%. Le ngxenye yamabhizinisi izothinteka ngqo ukuguquguquka kwentengo, kuyilapho iningi lamanye amabhizinisi ngokwemfundiso lingathinteki ukuguquguquka kwentengo yempahla.” UJia Dashan uhlaziye. Ngamanye amazwi, ukwanda kwezindleko okubangelwa ukwanda kwamanani empahla kuzodluliselwa ngqo kubathengi bangaphandle, futhi umthelela oqondile emabhizinisini aseShayina mncane kakhulu.

Kodwa-ke, njengezindleko ezibalulekile zezimpahla, ukwanda kwamanani okuthutha kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu emabhizinisini aseShayina, okubonakala kakhulu ekwehleni kwezinsizakalo zokuhamba. Ngenxa yokwehla kwezinga leshejuli yendiza kanye nendawo encane, ukusakazwa kokuhweba kwamabhizinisi okucubungula ukuthumela kwamanye amazwe aseShayina akusheleli. Ngisho noma ama-oda ekhiqizwa ngempumelelo, ukulethwa kuzothinteka ukuthuthwa okubi, okuzothinta ukwenziwa kwe-oda lenkampani kanye namalungiselelo okukhiqiza.

“Amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi azothinteka kakhulu.” UJia Dashan ukholelwa ukuthi ngenxa yokuntuleka kweziqinisekiso zenkontileka yesikhathi eside, amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi afuna kakhulu izinsizakalo zokuhamba emakethe yezitolo. Ngaphansi kwamandla okuxoxisana kanye neziqinisekiso zamandla, abhekene nokwenyuka kwamanje kwamanani empahla. Inkinga yokuthi “ibhokisi kunzima ukulithola, kanti ikhebhini kunzima ukulithola”. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iminyango yezinhlangano zezokuthutha eziseceleni komhlaba kanye neyokuthutha ngaphakathi ezweni izokwengeza izindleko ezengeziwe zokunciphisa imithwalo kanye nokugcina ngenxa yokwanda kwamanani empahla kanye nokwehla kwesikhathi sokundiza.

Ukwandisa umthamo kunzima ukuwelapha

Ngokusho kwedatha evela ezikhungweni zocwaningo lwemakethe yasolwandle, amandla okusebenza emhlabeni wonke emikhumbi ethwala izitsha ehle yaba ngaphansi kuka-1%. Ngaphandle kwemikhumbi okumele ilungiswe, cishe wonke amandla abekwe emakethe. Abanikazi bemikhumbi abaningi sebeqalile ukwandisa izinga loku-oda amandla, kodwa ibanga elide alikwazi ukwanelisa ukoma okuseduze. Abathumeli basabika ukuthi amandla asalokhu ephansi futhi kunzima ukuthola ikhabhini elilodwa.

UZhu Pengzhou, ilungu le-Shanghai Shipping Exchange, uthe uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka lubizwa ngokuthi uchungechunge ngoba umkhawulo ophezulu wamandla alo lonke uchungechunge uvame ukuthintwa umphumela webhodi elifushane. Isibonelo, ukwehla kokusebenza kahle kwesiteshi, ukushoda kwabashayeli bamaloli, kanye nesivinini esinganele sokulayisha nokubuyisela izitsha emafektri konke kuzoba yimingcele. Izinkampani zemikhumbi ezikhulisa nje amandla okuthumela imikhumbi azikwazi ukuthuthukisa amandla alo lonke uchungechunge lwezokuthutha.

UJia Dashan uvumelana kakhulu. Ngokuphathelene nesidingo, uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2019, isidingo sokuthuthwa kwezitsha sikhuphuke cishe ngo-6%. Ngokuphathelene nomthamo, umthamo ukhuphuke cishe ngo-7.5% esikhathini esifanayo. Kungabonakala ukuthi ukungalingani phakathi kokunikezwa nesidingo akubangelwanga amandla anele. Ukwanda okungalingani kwesidingo sempahla okubangelwa ubhubhane, ukuqoqwa nokusatshalaliswa okubi, ukuminyana kwamachweba, kanye nokwehla kokusebenza kahle kwemikhumbi yizona zizathu eziyinhloko.

Ngenxa yalokhu, abanikazi bemikhumbi bamanje basaqaphela kakhulu ngokutshala imali ekwakheni imikhumbi. Ngo-Agasti 2021, isilinganiso samandla oku-oda emikhunjini ekhona sizokhuphuka sifinyelele ku-21.3%, okuphansi kakhulu kunezinga lika-60% esicongweni sokugcina sokuthunyelwa ngo-2007. Ngisho noma le mikhumbi ifakwa enkonzweni ngaphambi kuka-2024, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esingu-3% kanye nesilinganiso sonyaka esingu-3% sokudilizwa, ubudlelwano phakathi kwamandla kanye nomthamo buzohlala bungashintshi, futhi imakethe izoqhubeka nokugcina amazinga aphezulu okuthutha.

Kuzoba nini "nzima ukuthola ikhabhini"

Izinga lokuthutha elikhuphukayo aligcini nje ngokuba libi ezinkampanini zokuhweba, kodwa futhi lizoletha izingozi ezinkulu kanye nokungaqiniseki ezinkampanini zokuthumela impahla ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Inkampani enkulu yemikhumbi yamazwe ngamazwe i-CMA CGM ikubeke kwacaca ukuthi kusukela ngoSepthemba kulo nyaka kuya kuFebhuwari 2022, izoyeka ukukhuphuka kwamanani empahla emakethe yezimpahla. I-Hapag-Lloyd iphinde yathi ithathe izinyathelo zokunqanda ukwanda kwamanani empahla.

"Kulindeleke ukuthi ukuphela kuka-2021 kuzoletha iphuzu lokukhula kwesilinganiso sempahla esiphezulu emakethe, futhi izinga lempahla lizongena kancane kancane esikhaleni sokubiza kabusha. Vele, umthelela wokungaqiniseki kwezimo eziphuthumayo awunakushiywa ngaphandle." UZhang Yongfeng, umeluleki oyinhloko weShanghai International Shipping Research Center kanye nomqondisi we-Institute of International Shipping Express.

“Ngisho noma ubudlelwano bokuphakelwa kanye nesidingo bubuyiselwe ngokuphelele ezingeni lika-2019, ngenxa yokwanda kwezindleko zezinto ezahlukahlukene, kunzima ukuthi izinga lokuthutha impahla libuyele ezingeni lika-2016 kuya ku-2019.” kusho uJia Dashan.

Uma sibheka amazinga aphezulu okuthutha impahla njengamanje, abanikazi bempahla abaningi bathambekele ekusayineni izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokuvala amazinga okuthutha impahla, futhi isilinganiso sezivumelwano zesikhathi eside emakethe siyakhula kancane kancane.

Iminyango kahulumeni nayo isebenza kanzima. Kuyaqondakala ukuthi uMnyango Wezokuthutha, uMnyango Wezohwebo kanye neminye iminyango efanele isebenzise izinqubomgomo zokukhangisa ezisebenzayo ezicini eziningi njengokwandisa ukukhiqizwa kwamakhonteyina, ukuqondisa izinkampani zemikhumbi ukuthi zandise umthamo, kanye nokuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kwezinsizakalo zezokuthutha ukuqinisekisa ukuzinza kochungechunge lokuphakelwa kwezimboni lwamazwe ngamazwe.