Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amanani wezimpahla in the container internationalimaketheziye zaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, okube nomthelela omkhulu ekuthuthweni kwamazwe ngamazwe, ezokuthutha kanyeuhwebo.

Kusukela ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, inkomba yezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle eChina isifinyelele amaphuzu angu-3,079, okuwukunyuka ngo-240.1% esikhathini esifanayo ngo-2020, futhi ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili komlando wamaphuzu angu-1,336 ngaphambi komjikelezo wamanje wokunyuka.

Lo mzuliswano wokunyuka kwentengo ubandakanya ububanzi obubanzi. Ngaphambi kuka-2020, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lempahla emakethe yamabhokisi bekugxilwe kakhulu emizileni ethile nasezinkathini ezithile zesikhathi, kepha lo mzuliswano ukhule ngokujwayelekile. Amanani ezimpahla zemizila emikhulu njengomzila waseYurophu, umzila waseMelika, umzila waseJapan-South Korea, umzila waseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia, kanye nomzila waseMedithera akhuphuke ngo-410.5 ngokulandelana uma kuqhathaniswa nokuphela kuka-2019. %, 198.2%, 39.1% , 89.7% kanye no-396.7%.

Izinga lempahla "elingabonwa ngaphambili" liyakhuphuka

Mayelana nokukhula kwemakethe yezokuthutha ezithwala amabhokisi emhlabeni jikelele, uJia Dashan, iphini likamongameli we-Water Transport Research Institute yoMnyango Wezokuthutha, oseneminyaka eminingi enza ucwaningo lwemboni, naye wakhala “ngokungabonwa ngaphambili”.

UJia Dashan uthe ngokombono wesidingo, umnotho womhlaba uqhubeke nokusimama kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, futhi uhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe luphinde lwaqala ukukhula ngokushesha. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2019, isidingo sokuthuthwa kweziqukathi sikhuphuke cishe ngo-6%. Isimo eChina singcono. Kusukela ngoJuni 2020, ukukhiqiza kanye nohwebo lwangaphandle luzuze ukukhula okuqhubekayo.

Ngokombono wokuhlinzeka, ukusebenza kahle kwemikhumbi ethinteke ubhubhane kwehle kakhulu. Amazwe akhuphule ukuvinjelwa nokulawulwa kwezifo eziwumshayabhuqe eziphuma kwamanye amazwe ezikhumulweni zemikhumbi, andisa isikhathi sokuma kwemikhumbi emachwebeni, futhi anciphisa ukusebenza kahle kwenzuzo yochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngeziqukathi. Isikhathi esimaphakathi semikhumbi emi esikhumulweni semikhumbi sikhuphuke cishe ngezinsuku ezi-2, futhi imikhumbi emachwebeni aseNyakatho Melika yahlala esikhumulweni izinsuku ezingaphezu kwezingu-8. Ukwehla kwenzuzo kwephule ibhalansi yokuqala. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo lapho ibhalansi eyisisekelo yokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo ngo-2019 yayingaphezu kancane, kukhona ukushodahlinzekacishe u-10%.

Ukushoda okuqhubekayo kwabasebenzi nakho kukhuphule ukushoda. Isimo esiyinkimbinkimbi sobhubhane emazweni amakhulu ahamba olwandle njengePhilippines ne-India, kuhlanganiswe nokushintshwa kwabasebenzi kanye nokuhlukaniswa, kuholele ekwenyukeni okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zabasebenzi emakethe yasolwandle.

Ephazanyiswe izici ezibalulwe ngenhla, ubudlelwano obujwayelekile phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo buye kwahlehla ngokushesha, futhi amazinga okuthutha ama-container liner aqhubekile nokukhuphuka kakhulu.

Izibalo ze-United Nations Trade and Development Council, China Customs kanye namachweba zikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngaphambi kokugqashuka kwalolu bhubhane kuze kube nguJulayi nonyaka, ngaphezu kwama-80% omthamo wokuhwebelana emhlabeni wonke uqedwe olwandle, kanti ingxenye yohwebo lwangaphandle lwaseChina. futhi ukuthunyelwa olwandle kwamanye amazwe kwakuvela kulo bhubhane. U-94.3% wangaphambili ukhuphuke wafinyelela ku-94.8% wamanje.

“Ngokocwaningo olufanele, ekuhwebeni kwezimpahla zaseShayina zokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle, ingxenye yezimpahla amalungelo azo okuthumela alawulwa amabhizinisi asekhaya ifinyelela ngaphansi kwama-30%. Le ngxenye yamabhizinisi izothinteka ngokuqondile ngokuguquguquka kwentengo, kuyilapho iningi lamanye amabhizinisi ngokombono lingathintwa ukuguquguquka kwentengo yempahla. .” UJia Dashan uhlaziyiwe. Ngamanye amazwi, ukwenyuka kwezindleko okubangelwa ukwenyuka kwamanani ezimpahla kuzoqale kudluliselwe ngokuqondile kubathengi bangaphandle, futhi umthelela oqondile emabhizinisini aseShayina mncane uma kuqhathaniswa.

Kodwa-ke, njengezindleko ezibalulekile zezimpahla, ukwenyuka kwamanani ezimpahla nakanjani kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu emabhizinisini aseShayina, okuboniswa ikakhulukazi ekwehleni kwezinsizakalo zokuthutha. Ngenxa yokwehla kwezinga leshejuli yendiza kanye nesikhala esiminyene, ukusakazwa kohwebo kwamabhizinisi aseShayina okucubungula ukuthekelisa akusheleli. Ngisho noma ama-oda akhiqizwa ngempumelelo, ukulethwa kuzothinteka ngenxa yokungahambi kahle kwezinto zokuhamba, okuzothinta ukukhishwa kwe-oda yenkampani kanye nezinhlelo zokukhiqiza.

“Amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo azothinteka kakhulu.” UJia Dashan ukholelwa ukuthi ngenxa yokuntuleka kweziqinisekiso zenkontileka yesikhathi eside, amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo ikakhulukazi afuna izinsiza zokuthutha emakethe yendawo. Ngokuya emandleni okuxoxisana neziqinisekiso zomthamo, babhekene nokwanda kwamanje kwamanani ezimpahla. Inkinga yokuthi “ibhokisi kunzima ukulithola, futhi kunzima ukulithola ikhabethe”. Ukwengeza, iminyango yechweba eliseduze nezwe kanye neminyango yenhlangano yezokuthutha emaphakathi nezwe izophinde yengeze izindleko ezengeziwe zokunciphisa impahla kanye nezindleko zokuyigcina ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamazinga okuthutha kanye nokuncipha kokugcina isikhathi kwendiza.

Ukwanda kwamandla kunzima ukukwelapha

Ngokwemininingwane evela ezikhungweni zocwaningo lwemakethe yasolwandle, umthamo wokungenzi lutho emhlabeni wonke wemikhumbi yamabhokisi ehle waba ngaphansi kuka-1%. Ngaphandle kwemikhumbi okufanele ilungiswe, cishe wonke amandla afakwe emakethe. Abanikazi bemikhumbi abaningi sebeqalile ukukhuphula izinga loku-oda kwamandla, kodwa ibanga elide alikwazi ukwanelisa ukoma okuseduze. Abathumeli basabika ukuthi umthamo usaqinile futhi kunzima ukuthola ikhabethe elilodwa.

U-Zhu Pengzhou, oyilungu le-Shanghai Shipping Exchange, uthe uchungechunge lokunikezela lubizwa ngeketango ngoba umkhawulo ongaphezulu wamandla weketango lonke uvame ukuthinteka ngenxa yomphumela webhodi elifushane. Isibonelo, ukuncipha kokusebenza kahle kwetheminali, ukushoda kwabashayeli bamaloli, kanye nesivinini esinganele sokuthulula kanye neziqukathi ezibuyayo ezimbonini kuzobeka imingcele. Izinkampani zama-liner zivele zandise umthamo wokuthumela wemikhumbi azikwazi ukuthuthukisa umthamo ophelele wochungechunge lwezokuthutha.

UJia Dashan uvumelana kakhulu. Mayelana nesidingo, uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2019, isidingo sokuthuthwa kweziqukathi sikhuphuke cishe ngo-6%. Ngokwamandla, umthamo wenyuka cishe ngo-7.5% ngesikhathi esifanayo. Kungabonakala ukuthi ukungafani phakathi kokuhlinzeka nokufunwa akubangelwa umthamo onganele. Ukwenyuka okungenakulinganisela kwesidingo sempahla okubangelwa yilolu bhubhane, ukuqoqwa nokusatshalaliswa okungekuhle, ukuminyana kwemikhumbi, kanye nokwehla kokusebenza kahle kwemikhumbi yizizathu eziyinhloko.

Ngenxa yalokhu, abanikazi bemikhumbi bamanje basaqaphe kakhulu mayelana nokutshala imali ekwakhiweni kwemikhumbi. Ngo-Agasti 2021, ingxenye yomthamo wama-oda emikhumbi ekhona izokhuphuka ibe ngu-21.3%, ephansi kakhulu kunezinga lika-60% endaweni ephakeme yokugcina yokuthunyelwa ngo-2007. Ngisho noma le mikhumbi iqala ukusebenza ngaphambi kuka-2024, isilinganiso sokukhula kwaminyaka yonke esingu-3% kanye nezinga elimaphakathi lonyaka lika-3% lokudilizwa, ubudlelwano phakathi kwamandla nomthamo buzohlala bungashintshile, futhi imakethe izoqhubeka nokugcina amanani aphezulu wempahla. izinga.

Kuzodambisa nini “ubunzima bokuthola ikhabethe”

Izinga elikhuphukayo lempahla aligcini nje ngokungathandeki ezinkampanini ezihwebayo, kodwa futhi lizoletha ubungozi obukhulu kanye nokungaqiniseki ezinkampanini zemikhumbi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Isikhondlakhondla semikhumbi yamazwe ngamazwe i-CMA CGM sikubeke kwacaca ukuthi kusukela ngoSepthemba walo nyaka kuya kuFebhuwari 2022, izoyeka ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla emakethe. UHapag-Lloyd uphinde wathi sekuthathe izinyathelo zokunqanda ukukhuphuka kwezinga lempahla.

"Kulindeleke ukuthi ukuphela kuka-2021 kungenise izinga lokukhuphuka kwempahla emakethe, futhi izinga lempahla lizongena kancane kancane endaweni yokubuyela emuva. Yebo, umthelela wokungaqiniseki kwezimo eziphuthumayo awunakuhoxiswa.” Zhang Yongfeng, umeluleki omkhulu we-Shanghai International Shipping Research Center kanye nomqondisi we-Institute of International Shipping Express.

"Ngisho noma ubudlelwano bokuhlinzeka nezidingo bubuyiselwe ngokuphelele ezingeni lika-2019, ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezindleko zezinto ezahlukahlukene, kunzima ukuthi inani lempahla libuyele ezingeni lika-2016 kuya ku-2019." Kusho uJia Dashan.

Uma kubhekwa amanani aphezulu akhona njengamanje, abanikazi bempahla abayandayo bathambekele ekusayineni izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokukhiya amanani ezimpahla, futhi ingxenye yezivumelwano zesikhathi eside emakethe ikhula kancane kancane.

Iminyango kahulumeni nayo isebenza ngokuzikhandla. Kuyaqondakala ukuthi uMnyango Wezokuthutha, uMnyango Wezohwebo kanye neminye iminyango ethintekayo isebenzise izinqubomgomo zokukhuthaza ezisebenzayo ezicini eziningi ezinjengokwandisa ukukhiqizwa kwamabhokisi, ukuqondisa izinkampani zamalayini ukuze zandise umthamo, kanye nokwenza ngcono ukusebenza kahle kwenkonzo yezokuthutha ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuzinza kwezizwe ngezizwe. i-industrial chain supply chain.